COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?

This study examines the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict and investigates the possible moderating role of government economic support during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Our main hypothesis suggests that countries with lower levels of government economic support are more likely to experience a positive correlation between higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the emergence of internal conflict. Using cross-country data from over 100 countries and controlling for various factors that may influence internal conflict, our analysis provides some support for this hypothesis. The results suggest a possible moderating role for government economic support, with the evidence indicating a weakening or elimination of the association between COVID-19 mortality rates and internal conflict when government economic support is adequate. However, the moderating effect of government economic support is not always significant, and caution is needed when interpreting the results. Our analysis also highlights the potential risks associated with low levels of government economic support during the pandemic. Specifically, we find that in countries where the government's macro-financial package in response to the pandemic is less than approximately 25% of GDP, there is a possible risk of growth in civil disorder resulting from increased COVID-19 deaths per million.     

Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

异地商会与企业风险承担*——基于上市公司的实证研究

商会组织是企业拓展社会网络和积累社会资本的重要平台,旨在推动企业之间实现资源共享和风险共担。本文以我国A股上市公司作为研究样本,实证分析企业参与异地商会对企业风险承担水平的影响。本文研究结果表明,参与异地商会有助于提高企业风险承担水平,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。从作用机制上看,参与异地商会不仅有利于降低企业融资约束,同时助推了企业并购活动。进一步研究发现,异地商会对地区间社会信任具有替代效应,并且提升风险承担的作用,在传统商帮文化浓厚的地区和市场化程度较高的地区更为明显。参与异地商会有助于企业减轻供应链环节的风险。本文为验证商会的风险共担特征提供了实证依据,为理解商会组织的社会功能提供了参考。     

International Experience,China’s Development and Prospect of Carbon Market Construction

Carbon market, which is capable of scientific quantifying and marked-based pricing of carbon emission, is an important way for countries to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction. The global carbon market, after more than ten years of development, has developed a mature mechanism. China started the trial of carbon market in 2011. After ten years of exploration, the national carbon trading market was officially launched in mid-July 2021. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, the national carbon market will shoulder a greater mission of carbon emission reduction and speed up its financialization and internationalization. However, it should take a dialectical attitude toward the opportunities and risks of carbon market financialization. In the future, China can promote the development of carbon market through efforts to develop market participants, clarify the attributes of carbon finance, prevent potential risks of carbon finance, improve the connection mechanism with the international carbon market, and innovate carbon finance services.     

租赁资产的信用风险度量

对租赁资产重复采样,采用信用损失分布的蒙特卡罗模拟方法进行分析,结果表明:有形资产抵押可减少租赁资产组合的信用风险。在巴塞尔协议的IRB方法度量中,由于违约暴露的不同,从而得到的资本准备金要求也存在明显的区别。     

互联网金融背景下 大学生金融风险及其防范对策的探讨

随着互联网金融的快速发展,第三方支付、P2P网贷等互联网金融服务在大学校园迅速传播,大学生所面临的金融风险在不断加大。个人信息泄露、财产损失、学业荒废甚至违法犯罪,大学生由于互联网金融而引发的一系列不幸事件使我们不得不重视大学生金融风险问题。引导学生在合理接受互联网金融服务、提高自身生活品质的同时,正确认识并规避相应的金融风险是高校教育必须长期面对的一个问题。     

P2P网络借贷的风险与监管问题分析

近年来,作为金融创新的一种形式,我国P2P网贷平台迅猛发展,在解决资金供需矛盾的同时,也出现一系列负面问题,如跑路、提现困难,甚至诈骗等现象。因此,如何对P2P网贷平台进行风险防范和监管成为当前亟需解决的问题。P2P网络借贷的风险主要表现为:借款人引发的风险;投资人引发的风险;担保人引发的风险;平台引发的风险。对P2P网络借贷进行风险防范和监管的措施应包括:完善相关法律体系,明确法律地位;完善网络借贷行业规则和监管标准;建立完善透明的征信机制;加强网贷平台的行为监管;加强消费者保护和消费者风险教育。     

非金融企业委托贷款影响审计定价吗？

基于我国2011—2021年非金融类A股上市公司样本,实证考察了非金融企业委托贷款对审计定价的影响及其作用路径。研究发现,非金融企业委托贷款会显著提高审计定价,这种提升作用在股权关联型委托贷款、委托贷款业务复杂度高和处于货币政策紧缩期的企业中更显著。机制检验表明,经营风险和审计延迟是非金融企业委托贷款提高外部审计师审计定价的部分中介因子。研究从非金融企业委托贷款视角丰富了审计定价的相关理论研究。     

土地供给、分配机制与地方财政风险防范

在快速城市化背景下,我国与土地相关的财政收入呈现超常规增长趋势,此现象引起学术界、政府部门和民众的广泛关注并成为争论的焦点。土地财政可持续的治理方式在于遏制土地低价供给的途径以缓解地方政府"卖地赚钱"的冲动,并通过建立合理的土地收益分配机制稳定地方政府的土地预期收益,同时辅之以政绩考核制度改革和政府财政风险防范机制的增强。     

基于真实收益率的中国外汇储备最优币种结构分析

本文利用Markowitz提出的资产组合理论(Markowitz,1952),结合中国外汇储备结构的具体情况,根据经济实力、币值稳定性和交易匹配三大原则,摒弃含有诸多弊端的、单纯以美元计价的外汇储备收益率,改为采用以商品篮子衡量的外汇储备真实收益率作为期望收益率,利用二次规划工具求出了以4种外汇储备最优资产组合的风险有效前沿,测算出我国外汇储备最优币种结构,并给出相应建议,以期实现外汇储备保值增值的目标。